MIKE MAZZEI

Governor of Oklahoma

Election Day Countdown

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

82

Days

14

Hrs

41

Min

7

Sec

Current Support

13%

Runoff Threshold

22–25%

Votes Needed

82K

Path To Runoff

Objective

Secure a position in the runoff election
Achieve second place in the Republican primary
Prevent Drummond from exceeding 50%
Move from ~13% to 22–25% vote share

Current Polling Snapshot

Adjust sliders to see runoff scenarios

Drummond

35%

McCall

14%

Keating

13%

Mazzei

13%

Runoff Threshold: 22–25%

50% Majority

Mazzei needs 9% more to reach runoff

Runoff Path Strategy

This campaign is structured around a clear objective: secure a runoff position in the Republican primary while preventing any candidate from exceeding 50%, forcing a runoff.

The path to that outcome is not statewide saturation, but focused vote movement within a defined set of high-impact counties.

Based on current positioning, the campaign must move approximately 70,000–100,000 voters to reach a competitive runoff range of 22–25%.

This is achieved through a coordinated system of reach, frequency, and reinforcement—using television to establish broad visibility, digital delivery to control message repetition, and targeted follow-up channels to reinforce and stabilize support.

The model is built on disciplined allocation, consistent messaging, and measurable execution over an 80-day window. The following sections translate this strategy into required vote movement, budget ranges, and deployment structure.

How To Achieve Runoff

County-by-county voter targets

Oklahoma $432K

18K voters @ $24 CPV

Tulsa $384K

16K voters @ $24 CPV

Cleveland $176K

8K voters @ $22 CPV

Canadian $165K

7.5K voters @ $22 CPV

Rogers $120K

6K voters @ $20 CPV

Wagoner $110K

5.5K voters @ $20 CPV

Payne $100K

5K voters @ $20 CPV

Comanche $121K

5.5K voters @ $22 CPV

Subtotal: $1.61M

Buffer: $600K

Total: $2.2M

County

Voters Needed

Cost Per Voter

Budget Allocation

Oklahoma

18,000

$24

$432,000

Tulsa

16,000

$24

$384,000

Cleveland

8,000

$22

$176,000

Canadian

7,500

$22

$165,000

Rogers

6,000

$20

$120,000

Wagoner

5,500

$20

$110,000

Payne

5,000

$20

$100,000

Comanche

5,500

$22

$121,000

Subtotal:

$1.61M

Buffer (undecided + inefficiency):

$600K

Total:

$2.2M

80-Day Messaging Timeline

Messaging phases leading to Election Day

Phase 1

Define

80–60 days

Phase 2

Contrast

60–30 days

Phase 3

Convert

30–10 days

Final

Turnout

Last 10 days

See Messaging

Media Allocation & Delivery

Channel distribution, delivery mechanics, and targeting framework

TV

$1.2M

Digital

$1.0M

Direct Mail

$300K

Ground / Text

$200K

This is a coordinated delivery system designed for reach, repetition, and reinforcement.

Channel Roles

TV

Broad Reach + Legitimacy

Establishes presence across major markets (OKC, Tulsa)
Builds baseline awareness quickly
Reinforces credibility at scale

Digital

Precision Targeting + Frequency

Delivered through Demand Side Platform (DSP)
Audience-based targeting, not just demographic
Repeated exposure across CTV, YouTube, display

Direct Mail

Physical Reinforcement + Recall

High-propensity voter households only
Tangible message delivery & retention
Timed to align with digital and TV

Ground / Text

Final-Stage Conversion Support

Peer-to-peer outreach & SMS reminders
Field presence and follow-through
Converts awareness into action

Digital Targeting Architecture

01

Geography

Priority counties
Suburban growth areas
High turnout zones

02

Audience Signals

News consumption patterns
Economic & policy interests
Conservative content engagement

03

Device & Platform

Connected TV (streaming)
Mobile devices
YouTube / video platforms

04

Retargeting Loop

Initial exposure → tracked
Re-exposure within 24–72 hrs
Increased frequency over time

Digital controls message frequency and reinforces exposure from television.

Message Exposure Model

1–2 exposures

Awareness

3–5 exposures

Recognition

6–10 exposures

Decision

Digital delivery ensures repeated exposure after initial reach is created by television.

How Channels Work Together

TV Introduces message broadly

Digital Reinforces message repeatedly

Mail Confirms and stabilizes message

Ground Supports final-stage action

No channel operates independently. Each layer reinforces the same message to increase recall.

Budget Deployment by Phase

80–60 Days Introduce Message

TV

Light

Digital

Primary

Mail

—

Ground

—

60–30 Days Contrast & Movement

TV

Increased

Digital

High Freq

Mail

Begins

Ground

—

30–10 Days Consolidation

TV

Heavy

Digital

Saturation

Mail

Repeat

Ground

—

Final 10 Days Turnout Support

TV

Peak

Digital

Max

Mail

Active

Ground

Highest

Why This Allocation Works

Television

Provides scale but limited frequency

Digital

Provides frequency but limited standalone reach

DSP Improves Efficiency

Reduces wasted impressions

Targets defined audiences

Dynamic pacing

Combined Effect

Broad exposure Controlled repetition Multi-environment reinforcement

Middle-aged man in light blue shirt and dark tie, resting chin on hand with a thoughtful expression against a black background.

Strategic Summary

Objective

Runoff

Constraint

Frontrunner Below 50%

8 County Focus

Oklahoma, Tulsa, Cleveland, Comanche, Canadian, Rogers, Wagoner, Creek

Voters

Voters to Move

82K

Budget

Budget to Deploy

$2.2M

Projection

Runoff

Back to Issues Page Go to Messaging Page Candidate Analysis