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Political Intelligence

We Projected the Oklahoma
Governor's Race Within .03 Points. While every major poll showed a four-way tie.

What This Means For The Runoff

Our model has generated a specific (and stunning) prediction for the runoff
and the exact plan to change the outcome over the final 4-6 weeks.

McCall and Keating voters will decide who becomes Oklahoma's next Governor.

Our precinct-level targeting identifies exactly where those voters live,
what issues move them, and which messaging channels reach them.

Get a surgical strategy to convert the voters who will determine the runoff.

August 25th
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Data provided by Exact Audience AI

Oklahoma Republican Governor Primary

Top 5 Candidates

Our Prediction
Certified Result
Gentner Drummond ✓
CSL
26.0%
Cert
26.25%
Diff: -0.25% Runoff ✓
Mike Mazzei ✓
CSL
25.7%
Cert
25.97%
Diff: -0.27% Runoff ✓
Chip Keating
CSL
19.2%
Cert
18.45%
Diff: +0.75%
Jake A. Merrick
CSL
13.7%
Cert
14.47%
Diff: -0.77%
Charles McCall
CSL
12.6%
Cert
11.79%
Diff: +0.81%

We called the Drummond–Mazzei margin at 931 votes.

The certified margin was 1,158 votes.
A difference of just 227 votes.

We did it again with the
Attorney General's race

Our Prediction
Certified Result

Overall Results

Jon Echols ✓ Winner CSL 53.3% / Cert 55.00%
CSL
53.3%
Cert
55.00%
Diff: -1.70%
Jeff Starling CSL 46.7% / Cert 45.00%
CSL
46.7%
Cert
45.00%
Diff: +1.70%

Breakdown by Voting Method — Echols Vote Share

Absentee Mail CSL 53.3% / Cert 55.37%
CSL
53.3%
Cert
55.37%
Diff: -2.07%
Early Voting CSL 53.3% / Cert 57.72%
CSL
53.3%
Cert
57.72%
Diff: -4.42%
Election Day CSL 53.3% / Cert 54.74%
CSL
53.3%
Cert
54.74%
Diff: -1.44%
Total CSL 53.3% / Cert 55.00%
CSL
53.3%
Cert
55.00%
Diff: -1.70%

The model correctly identified Echols as the winner and
was within 1.1 to 2.3 percent across every voting category.

August 25, 2026

Looking Ahead:
The August 25 Runoff

With Drummond and Mazzei advancing, both campaigns must now persuade a combined 30-plus percent of the electorate that voted for eliminated candidates.

Runoff turnout typically drops significantly from the primary, making broad demographic media buys far less efficient and precision targeting far more critical.

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In a runoff, the race becomes a precision problem. The campaign that can identify which voters from the eliminated candidates are genuinely persuadable — and reach them efficiently across every platform they use — holds a decisive advantage.

A Multi-Variable Approach
to Predictive Modeling

Where traditional polling relies on self-reported voter preference, we synthesize the
voter's list with a wide range of independent data inputs that updates 24/7.

Local Economic Conditions

Employment data and regional economic indicators drive voter sentiment patterns

News & Media Consumption

Real-time tracking of what stories and narratives are reaching each community

Issue Salience by Geography

Identifying which issues matter most in specific communities — not just statewide averages

Velocity of Political Signals

Measuring how fast political sentiment moves through specific communities and demographics

Digital & Streaming Media Behavior

Audience engagement patterns across CTV, social platforms, and digital channels

Continuous Model Updates

Not a single snapshot in time — the model refreshes as new data enters the system

Ready To Win With Precision?

Whether you're heading into a runoff, a general election, or planning
your 2026 strategy, our voter-level targeting can be the edge you need to win.

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